The number of trucks in use in the United States has declined for decades.
But a new report shows that the trend may be changing.
The report, from the transportation company TracFone, said the number of new trucks on the road has been declining for years and the percentage of new vehicles being purchased by consumers and businesses has fallen dramatically.
The company predicts the market will fall by an average of 6.4% in 2020 and another 9.4%.
Trac Fone says the market for new truck and bus fleets will shrink by 2.2% this year.
In 2020, a total of 1,742,923 new trucks will be on the roads.
That’s down from 1,957,788 in 2019 and 2,638,854 in 2018.
“The trend has been going for a long time,” said Mike Mascagni, chief economist for Trac.
“I think we’re going to see it accelerate a bit.
The industry will need to find a way to increase supply of trucks, which will be critical in the short term. “
And this is really a good sign for the future.”
The industry will need to find a way to increase supply of trucks, which will be critical in the short term.
“We have a very good understanding of the drivers that are going to be in that fleet,” Mascagnti said.
“As you look at what’s going to happen to demand and supply in the truck market, you’re going a bit higher than you are now, but you’re still at a very low level.”
The study predicts demand for trucks will increase by 4.3% in the next five years, with the increase largely driven by the expansion of electric-only fleets and the introduction of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
The decline in new vehicle use in 2020 is due in part to the expiration of several major fuel-cell fleet expansions.
The biggest is the arrival of Tesla, which last year started selling the Model 3.
The new Model 3, which starts at $35,000 and has a range of more than 500 miles, is expected to be a massive hit for truck manufacturers.
The Model 3 will be the first vehicle to have all three fuel cell electric motors on board.
“They are the future of transportation,” said John Hagee, CEO of Hageer Automotive, which makes electric vehicles and is an investor in Tracfone.
“You can drive in the summer, in the winter, on the highway and all of those things.”
Tesla has already launched its own fleet of electric trucks, and it is likely to be the next big driver in the industry.
But the company says it expects to ramp up production of its Model 3 fleet this year, and in 2020, to reach about 150,000 trucks, about double the number it currently has.
The numbers suggest that the industry is on the verge of a major shift.
“Our outlook for the truck industry is very positive, and we’re excited about the future,” said Hageed.
The report says the decline in vehicle sales is likely driven by a combination of factors. “
Demand is still going to grow, but we believe it will be driven by demand from the automotive and commercial sectors.”
The report says the decline in vehicle sales is likely driven by a combination of factors.
“For example, many consumers and business people have been conditioned to believe that the truck fleet is declining and are therefore less likely to buy new vehicles,” the report said.
But it adds that the percentage who are buying new vehicles has also decreased.
“This could be because of reduced interest from prospective buyers,” the Trac report said, “or the adoption of electrified vehicles by consumers has increased as a result of a greater focus on alternative fuels and lower gasoline consumption.”
The new report said that the market also is facing a potential slowdown in growth as more people enter the market, such as people who have moved to areas that have seen a spike in population.
“These demographic trends may reduce the volume of new vehicle purchases for several years,” the study said.
The study also found that trucking is not a sustainable industry.
“A shift to electric vehicles, fuel cell technology and the adoption by the public of hydrogen and/or other biofuels are all expected to slow the industry,” the research said.
While the decline of the trucking industry may have been partially offset by the introduction and widespread adoption of hydrogen, the report warned that the transition from oil to gas will take many more years.
“Transportation demand is already well below that for a number of reasons, including the growing importance of fuel-efficient vehicles and fuel-efficiency technology, the declining demand for truck drivers and the increased reliance on electric vehicles,” it said.